The Final Draw

Groups & qualification odds

12 groups of 4. Advance % is the model's chance a team reaches the knockout stage (top-2 or best third), from the Monte-Carlo simulation.

Group A

Team	R	Advance
MexicoHOST	81.87	100%
South Africa	68.09	100%
South Korea	72.74	0%
Czechia	68.3	0%

Group B

Team	R	Advance
CanadaHOST	74.73	100%
Bosnia & Herz.	67.15	100%
Switzerland	80	100%
Qatar	60.12	0%

Group C

Team	R	Advance
Brazil	84.8	100%
Morocco	81.3	100%
Haiti	66.04	0%
Scotland	71.86	0%

Group D

Team	R	Advance
United StatesHOST	75.6	100%
Paraguay	75.57	100%
Australia	76.25	100%
Türkiye	76.58	0%

Group E

Team	R	Advance
Germany	80.02	100%
Ivory Coast	74.42	100%
Ecuador	79.94	100%
Curaçao	62.62	0%

Group F

Team	R	Advance
Netherlands	83.24	100%
Japan	80.72	100%
Sweden	72.26	100%
Tunisia	65.78	0%

Group G

Team	R	Advance
Belgium	78.03	100%
Egypt	73.98	100%
Iran	74.72	0%
New Zealand	65.27	0%

Group H

Team	R	Advance
Spain	89.47	100%
Cape Verde	68.28	100%
Saudi Arabia	67.15	0%
Uruguay	77.1	0%

Group I

Team	R	Advance
France	89.37	100%
Senegal	76.29	100%
Norway	79.91	100%
Iraq	65.43	0%

Group J

Team	R	Advance
Argentina	90.13	100%
Algeria	74.55	100%
Austria	75.7	100%
Jordan	67.62	0%

Group K

Team	R	Advance
Portugal	83.01	100%
DR Congo	71.98	100%
Colombia	83.87	100%
Uzbekistan	68.14	0%

Group L

Team	R	Advance
England	84.76	100%
Croatia	79.4	100%
Ghana	67.29	100%
Panama	69.55	0%