SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sun, 28 Jun 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Algeria 3–3 Austria — match statistics
Algeria
Full time · Arrowhead, Kansas City
Match statistics
Algeria Austria
Timeline
| 11' | 🟨 | Marko Arnautovic — Yellowcard (Austria) |
| 28' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic — Goal (Austria) · 0-1 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Rafik Belghali — Goal (Algeria) · 1-1 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Michael Gregoritsch — Substitution (Austria) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Florian Grillitsch — Substitution (Austria) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Paul Wanner — Substitution (Austria) |
| 55' | ⚽ | Marcel Sabitzer — Goal (Austria) · 1-2 |
| 60' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez — Goal (Algeria) · 2-2 |
| 62' | 🔄 | Kevin Danso — Substitution (Austria) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Zineddine Belaid — Substitution (Algeria) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Samir Chergui — Substitution (Algeria) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Rayan Aït-Nouri — Substitution (Algeria) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez — Goal (Algeria) · 3-2 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sasa Kalajdzic — Goal (Austria) · 3-3 |
| 90' | 🔄 | Farès Ghedjemis — Substitution (Algeria) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Sasa Kalajdzic — Substitution (Austria) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Algeria·■ draw·■ Austria—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (14%)
actual 3–3 was 19th likeliest (1%)
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.16
actual 3 – 3
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 62%
6 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.9 expected
actual 1
Corners
≈8.6 expected
actual 3
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
M. Sabitzer 43% ⚽ R. Mahrez 39% ⚽ K. Baumgartner 29% I. Bennacer 27%Scored: Marko Arnautovic 28' · Rafik Belghali 45' · Marcel Sabitzer 55' · Riyad Mahrez 60' · Riyad Mahrez 90' · Sasa Kalajdzic 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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