SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sat, 27 Jun 2026 · 23:30 UTC
DR Congo 3–1 Uzbekistan — match statistics
DR Congo
Full time · Mercedes-Benz, Atlanta
Match statistics
DR Congo Uzbekistan
Timeline
| 10' | ⚽ | Eldor Shomurodov — Goal (Uzbekistan) · 0-1 |
| 21' | 🟨 | Noah Sadiki — Yellowcard (DR Congo) |
| 43' | 🟨 | Abdukodir Khusanov — Yellowcard (Uzbekistan) |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nathanaël Mbuku — Yellowcard (DR Congo) |
| 48' | 🟨 | Sherzod Nasrullaev — Yellowcard (Uzbekistan) |
| 51' | 🔄 | Fiston Mayele — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 59' | 🔄 | Aziz Ganiev — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
| 59' | 🔄 | Odildzhon Khamrobekov — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
| 62' | 🟨 | Samuel Moutoussamy — Yellowcard (DR Congo) |
| 68' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa — Penalty (DR Congo) · 1-1 |
| 72' | 🔄 | Théo Bongonda — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Meschack Elia — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Ngal'ayel Mukau — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Oston Urunov — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
| 78' | ⚽ | Fiston Mayele — Goal (DR Congo) · 2-1 |
| 82' | 🔄 | Jamshid Iskanderov — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
| 82' | 🔄 | Igor Sergeev — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Joris Kayembe — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa — Goal (DR Congo) · 3-1 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ DR Congo·■ draw·■ Uzbekistan—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (14%)
actual 3–1 was 12th likeliest (3%)
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.12
actual 3 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 62%
4 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈5.0 expected
actual 5
Corners
≈8.5 expected
actual 6
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
E. Shomurodov 42% ⚽ S. Bakambu 40% A. Masharipov 28% T. Mbemba 27%Scored: Eldor Shomurodov 10' · Yoane Wissa 68' · Fiston Mayele 78' · Yoane Wissa 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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