SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Fri, 26 Jun 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Senegal 5–0 Iraq — match statistics
Senegal
Full time · BMO Field, Toronto
Match statistics
Senegal Iraq
Timeline
| 4' | ⚽ | Habib Diarra — Goal (Senegal) · 1-0 |
| 12' | • | Rebin Sulaka — VAR_CARD (Iraq) |
| 13' | 🟥 | Rebin Sulaka — Redcard (Iraq) |
| 16' | 🔄 | Manaf Younis — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 18' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Seck — Yellowcard (Senegal) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Jalal Hassan — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr — Goal (Senegal) · 2-0 |
| 57' | 🔄 | Pape Gueye — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 57' | 🔄 | Nicolas Jackson — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 57' | 🔄 | Iliman Ndiaye — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Pathé Ciss — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Ahmed Hasan — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Ali Yousif — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 59' | ⚽ | Pape Gueye — Goal (Senegal) · 3-0 |
| 67' | 🔄 | Kevin Yakob — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 71' | ⚽ | Pape Gueye — Goal (Senegal) · 4-0 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Amir Al-Ammari — Yellowcard (Iraq) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Assane Diao — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 81' | 🟨 | Pape Gueye — Yellowcard (Senegal) |
| 82' | ⚽ | Iliman Ndiaye — Goal (Senegal) · 5-0 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Merchas Doski — Yellowcard (Iraq) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Senegal·■ draw·■ Iraq—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (15%)
actual 5–0 was 19th likeliest (1%)
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.79
actual 5 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 59%
5 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✓
No — 57%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.5 expected
actual 5
Corners
≈9.0 expected
actual 15
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
S. Mané 45% A. Hussein 32% N. Mendy 31% Aymen Hussein 21%Scored: Habib Diarra 4' · Ismaïla Sarr 56' · Pape Gueye 59' · Pape Gueye 71' · Iliman Ndiaye 82'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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