SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sat, 27 Jun 2026 · 03:00 UTC
Egypt 1–1 Iran — match statistics
Egypt
Full time · Lumen Field, Seattle
Match statistics
Egypt Iran
Timeline
| 5' | ⚽ | Mahmoud Saber — Goal (Egypt) · 1-0 |
| 11' | ❌ | Mehdi Taremi — Missed Penalty (Iran) |
| 14' | ⚽ | Ramin Rezaeian — Goal (Iran) · 1-1 |
| 14' | 🔄 | Yasser Ibrahim — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 19' | 🟨 | Hossein Kanaani — Yellowcard (Iran) |
| 20' | 🟨 | Mahmoud Saber — Yellowcard (Egypt) |
| 42' | 🟨 | Yasser Ibrahim — Yellowcard (Egypt) |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ali Nemati — Yellowcard (Iran) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Marwan Ateya — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Saleh Hardani — Substitution (Iran) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Omar Marmoush — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 57' | 🔄 | Zizo — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 67' | 🔄 | Shahriar Moghanlou — Substitution (Iran) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Hamza Abdelkarim — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 79' | 🟨 | Saeed Ezatolahi — Yellowcard (Iran) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Alireza Jahanbakhsh — Substitution (Iran) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mohanad Lasheen — Yellowcard (Egypt) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shoja Khalilzadeh — Yellowcard (Iran) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Egypt·■ draw·■ Iran—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✓
1–1 (14%)
exactly what happened: 1–1
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.14
actual 1 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 62%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈5.0 expected
actual 7
Corners
≈8.6 expected
actual 10
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
M. Taremi 42% M. Salah 40% A. Jahanbakhsh 29% O. Marmoush 27%Scored: Mahmoud Saber 5' · Ramin Rezaeian 14'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
Want the model on every match?
SaltaBall reads all 104 matches before kickoff and scores itself against the result, every time. Get the full model for the rest of the World Cup — predictions, the live war room, what-if scenarios and Game Sheets like this one.
One payment, full access through the final on 19 July, then back to free. Not a subscription. Football analytics and entertainment, never betting advice.