SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sat, 27 Jun 2026 · 03:00 UTC
New Zealand 1–5 Belgium — match statistics
New Zealand
Full time · BC Place, Vancouver
Match statistics
New Zealand Belgium
Timeline
| 28' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard — Goal (Belgium) · 0-1 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Ben Old — Substitution (New Zealand) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Jesse Randall — Substitution (New Zealand) |
| 46' | 🟨 | Marko Stamenić — Yellowcard (New Zealand) |
| 50' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard — Goal (Belgium) · 0-2 |
| 56' | 🔄 | Matías Fernández-Pardo — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 56' | 🟨 | Elijah Just — Yellowcard (New Zealand) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Michael Boxall — Substitution (New Zealand) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Callum McCowatt — Substitution (New Zealand) |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kevin De Bruyne — Goal (Belgium) · 0-3 |
| 72' | 🔄 | Amadou Onana — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Alexis Saelemaekers — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Francis de Vries — Substitution (New Zealand) |
| 84' | ⚽ | Elijah Just — Goal (New Zealand) · 1-3 |
| 85' | 🔄 | Romelu Lukaku — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Nicolas Raskin — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 86' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku — Goal (Belgium) · 1-4 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alexis Saelemaekers — Goal (Belgium) · 1-5 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ New Zealand·■ draw·■ Belgium—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
0–1 (15%)
actual 1–5 was 18th likeliest (1%)
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.72
actual 1 – 5
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 56%
6 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 59%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.4 expected
actual 2
Corners
≈9.4 expected
actual 13
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
K. De Bruyne 49% ⚽ J. Doku 34% C. Wood 29% R. Lukaku 23% ⚽Scored: Leandro Trossard 28' · Leandro Trossard 50' · Kevin De Bruyne 66' · Elijah Just 84' · Romelu Lukaku 86' · Alexis Saelemaekers 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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