SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Fri, 26 Jun 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Türkiye 3–2 United States — match statistics
Türkiye
Full time · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Match statistics
Türkiye United States
Timeline
| 3' | ⚽ | Auston Trusty — Goal (United States) · 0-1 |
| 10' | ⚽ | Arda Güler — Goal (Türkiye) · 1-1 |
| 19' | 🟨 | Sebastian Berhalter — Yellowcard (United States) |
| 31' | ⚽ | Barış Alper Yılmaz — Goal (Türkiye) · 2-1 |
| 49' | ⚽ | Sebastian Berhalter — Goal (United States) · 2-2 |
| 58' | 🔄 | Christian Pulisic — Substitution (United States) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Sergiño Dest — Substitution (United States) |
| 77' | 🔄 | Alex Freeman — Substitution (United States) |
| 77' | 🔄 | Álex Zendejas — Substitution (United States) |
| 84' | 🔄 | Çağlar Söyüncü — Substitution (Türkiye) |
| 84' | 🔄 | Can Uzun — Substitution (Türkiye) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Malik Tillman — Substitution (United States) |
| 88' | 🔄 | Kaan Ayhan — Substitution (Türkiye) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kaan Ayhan — Goal (Türkiye) · 3-2 |
| 90' | 🔄 | İrfan Can Kahveci — Substitution (Türkiye) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Mert Müldür — Substitution (Türkiye) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Türkiye·■ draw·■ United States—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (12%)
actual 3–2 was 16th likeliest (1%)
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.61
actual 3 – 2
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 52%
5 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 50%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.6 expected
actual 1
Corners
≈10.0 expected
actual 11
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
C. Pulisic 47% W. McKennie 32% A. Güler 31% ⚽ G. Reyna 21%Scored: Auston Trusty 3' · Arda Güler 10' · Barış Alper Yılmaz 31' · Sebastian Berhalter 49' · Kaan Ayhan 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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