SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Wed, 24 Jun 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Bosnia & Herz. 3–1 Qatar — match statistics
Bosnia & Herz.
Full time · Lumen Field, Seattle
Match statistics
Bosnia & Herz. Qatar
Timeline
| 29' | ⚽ | Kerim Alajbegovic — Goal (Bosnia & Herz.) · 1-0 |
| 34' | ⚽ | Mahmoud Abunada — Own Goal (Bosnia & Herz.) · 2-0 |
| 42' | ⚽ | Hasan Al-Haydos — Goal (Qatar) · 2-1 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Abdulaziz Hatim — Substitution (Qatar) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Amar Memic — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Benjamin Tahirović — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 56' | 🔄 | Ahmed Al-Ganehi — Substitution (Qatar) |
| 63' | 🔄 | Dennis Hadzikadunic — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Ermin Mahmic — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Almoez Ali — Substitution (Qatar) |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ahmed Fathi — Yellowcard (Qatar) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Ahmed Alaaeldin — Substitution (Qatar) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Mohamed Al-Mannai — Substitution (Qatar) |
| 80' | ⚽ | Ermin Mahmic — Goal (Bosnia & Herz.) · 3-1 |
| 82' | 🔄 | Dzenis Burnic — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ermin Mahmic — Yellowcard (Bosnia & Herz.) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Bosnia & Herz.·■ draw·■ Qatar—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (14%)
actual 3–1 was 11th likeliest (4%)
Expected goals
1.29 – 0.94
actual 3 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 62%
4 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.7 expected
actual 2
Corners
≈8.7 expected
actual 10
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
E. Džeko 46% A. Afif 36% S. Prevljak 32% Almoez Ali 24%Scored: Kerim Alajbegovic 29' · Mahmoud Abunada (og) 34' · Hasan Al-Haydos 42' · Ermin Mahmic 80'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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