SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Thu, 25 Jun 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Czechia 0–3 Mexico — match statistics
Czechia
Full time · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Match statistics
Czechia Mexico
Timeline
| 55' | ⚽ | Mateo Chávez — Goal (Mexico) · 0-1 |
| 56' | 🔄 | Lukas Provod — Substitution (Czechia) |
| 61' | ⚽ | Julián Quiñones — Goal (Mexico) · 0-2 |
| 63' | 🔄 | Santiago Gimenez — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 63' | 🔄 | Obed Vargas — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Patrik Schick — Substitution (Czechia) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Tomáš Souček — Substitution (Czechia) |
| 64' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez — Yellowcard (Mexico) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Álvaro Fidalgo — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Jesús Gallardo — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Guillermo Ochoa — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 87' | 🔄 | Tomas Chory — Substitution (Czechia) |
| 87' | 🔄 | Alexandr Sojka — Substitution (Czechia) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Álvaro Fidalgo — Goal (Mexico) · 0-3 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Czechia·■ draw·■ Mexico—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
0–2 (14%)
actual 0–3 was 3rd likeliest (11%)
Expected goals
0.66 – 2.35
actual 0 – 3
Over 2.5 goals✓
Over — 58%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✓
No — 56%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.1 expected
actual 1
Corners
≈11.7 expected
actual 6
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
S. Giménez 60% E. Álvarez 43% R. Jiménez 30% P. Schick 27%Scored: Mateo Chávez 55' · Julián Quiñones 61' · Álvaro Fidalgo 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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