SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Thu, 25 Jun 2026 · 01:00 UTC
South Africa 1–0 South Korea — match statistics
South Africa
Full time · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Match statistics
South Africa South Korea
Timeline
| 46' | 🔄 | Jens Castrop — Substitution (South Korea) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Jin-gyu Kim — Substitution (South Korea) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Heung-min Son — Substitution (South Korea) |
| 62' | 🔄 | Tshepang Moremi — Substitution (South Africa) |
| 63' | ⚽ | Thapelo Maseko — Goal (South Africa) · 1-0 |
| 65' | 🔄 | Jin-seob Park — Substitution (South Korea) |
| 73' | 🟨 | Aubrey Modiba — Yellowcard (South Africa) |
| 74' | 🔄 | Gue-sung Cho — Substitution (South Korea) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Iqraam Rayners — Substitution (South Africa) |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gue-sung Cho — Yellowcard (South Korea) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Jayden Adams — Substitution (South Africa) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ South Africa·■ draw·■ South Korea—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
0–1 (15%)
actual 1–0 was 7th likeliest (6%)
Expected goals
0.71 – 1.69
actual 1 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 57%
1 goal scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 58%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.4 expected
actual 2
Corners
≈9.4 expected
actual 10
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
Son Heung-min 48% Lee Kang-in 33% L. Foster 29% Kim Min-jae 22%Scored: Thapelo Maseko 63'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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