SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Wed, 24 Jun 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Colombia 1–0 DR Congo — match statistics
Colombia
Full time · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Match statistics
Colombia DR Congo
Timeline
| 46' | 🔄 | Noah Sadiki — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jhon Lucumí — Yellowcard (Colombia) |
| 57' | 🔄 | Simon Banza — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Jhon Córdoba — Substitution (Colombia) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Juan Fernando Quintero — Substitution (Colombia) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Joris Kayembe — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Charles Pickel — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 76' | ⚽ | Daniel Muñoz — Goal (Colombia) · 1-0 |
| 77' | 🔄 | Richard Ríos — Substitution (Colombia) |
| 82' | 🔄 | Nathanaël Mbuku — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charles Pickel — Yellowcard (DR Congo) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma — Yellowcard (Colombia) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Colombia·■ draw·■ DR Congo—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✓
1–0 (15%)
exactly what happened: 1–0
Expected goals
1.94 – 0.62
actual 1 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 53%
1 goal scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 60%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.2 expected
actual 3
Corners
≈10.0 expected
actual 9
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
L. Díaz 53% J. Rodríguez 37% S. Bakambu 26% R. Falcao 25%Scored: Daniel Muñoz 76'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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