SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Tue, 23 Jun 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Norway 3–2 Senegal — match statistics
Norway
Full time · MetLife Stadium, New York / NJ
Match statistics
Norway Senegal
Timeline
| 13' | 🔄 | Marcus Pedersen — Substitution (Norway) |
| 43' | ⚽ | Marcus Pedersen — Goal (Norway) · 1-0 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Patrick Berg — Substitution (Norway) |
| 48' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland — Goal (Norway) · 2-0 |
| 53' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr — Goal (Senegal) · 2-1 |
| 54' | 🔄 | Ismail Jakobs — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 54' | 🔄 | Ibrahim Mbaye — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 58' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland — Goal (Norway) · 3-1 |
| 63' | 🔄 | Pathé Ciss — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 63' | 🔄 | Mory Diaw — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Andreas Schjelderup — Substitution (Norway) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Pape Matar Sarr — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 84' | 🔄 | Oscar Bobb — Substitution (Norway) |
| 84' | 🔄 | Leo Østigård — Substitution (Norway) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr — Goal (Senegal) · 3-2 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Norway·■ draw·■ Senegal—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (14%)
actual 3–2 was 12th likeliest (2%)
Expected goals
1.34 – 0.90
actual 3 – 2
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 61%
5 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.7 expected
actual 0
Corners
≈8.7 expected
actual 9
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
E. Haaland 48% ⚽ M. Ødegaard 33% S. Mané 30% N. Mendy 20%Scored: Marcus Pedersen 43' · Erling Haaland 48' · Ismaïla Sarr 53' · Erling Haaland 58' · Ismaïla Sarr 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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