SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Mon, 22 Jun 2026 · 21:00 UTC
France 3–0 Iraq — match statistics
France
Full time · Lincoln Financial, Philadelphia
Match statistics
France Iraq
Timeline
| 6' | 🟨 | Amir Al-Ammari — Yellowcard (Iraq) |
| 14' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé — Goal (France) · 1-0 |
| 26' | 🔄 | Ali Al-Hamadi — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 54' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé — Goal (France) · 2-0 |
| 60' | 🔄 | Youssef Amyn — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 60' | 🔄 | Rebin Sulaka — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé — Goal (France) · 3-0 |
| 68' | 🔄 | Rayan Cherki — Substitution (France) |
| 68' | 🔄 | Désiré Doué — Substitution (France) |
| 68' | 🔄 | Aimar Sher — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 69' | 🔄 | Marko Farji — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Maghnes Akliouche — Substitution (France) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Malo Gusto — Substitution (France) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Marcus Thuram — Substitution (France) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ France·■ draw·■ Iraq—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
2–0 (16%)
actual 3–0 was 2nd likeliest (14%)
Expected goals
2.64 – 0.46
actual 3 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Over — 60%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✓
No — 66%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.0 expected
actual 1
Corners
≈12.0 expected
actual 6
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
K. Mbappé 64% ⚽ O. Dembélé 47% ⚽ A. Tchouaméni 33% A. Hussein 20%Scored: Kylian Mbappé 14' · Kylian Mbappé 54' · Ousmane Dembélé 66'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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