SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sun, 21 Jun 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Uruguay 2–2 Cape Verde — match statistics
Uruguay
Full time · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Match statistics
Uruguay Cape Verde
Timeline
| 5' | 🟨 | Sidny Lopes Cabral — Yellowcard (Cape Verde) |
| 20' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur — Yellowcard (Uruguay) |
| 21' | ⚽ | Kevin Lenini — Goal (Cape Verde) · 0-1 |
| 44' | ⚽ | Maxi Araújo — Goal (Uruguay) · 1-1 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Agustín Canobbio — Goal (Uruguay) · 2-1 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Deroy Duarte — Substitution (Cape Verde) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Nuno Da Costa — Substitution (Cape Verde) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Hélio Varela — Substitution (Cape Verde) |
| 58' | 🟨 | Mathías Olivera — Yellowcard (Uruguay) |
| 61' | ⚽ | Hélio Varela — Goal (Cape Verde) · 2-2 |
| 70' | 🔄 | Nicolás de la Cruz — Substitution (Uruguay) |
| 70' | 🔄 | Darwin Núñez — Substitution (Uruguay) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Laros Duarte — Substitution (Cape Verde) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Yannick Semedo — Substitution (Cape Verde) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Brian Rodríguez — Substitution (Uruguay) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diney Borges — Yellowcard (Cape Verde) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Uruguay·■ draw·■ Cape Verde—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (15%)
actual 2–2 was 11th likeliest (3%)
Expected goals
1.77 – 0.68
actual 2 – 2
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 56%
4 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 59%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.3 expected
actual 4
Corners
≈9.5 expected
actual 15
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
F. Valverde 50% D. Núñez 35% R. Mendes 28% R. Araújo 23% ⚽Scored: Kevin Lenini 21' · Maxi Araújo 44' · Agustín Canobbio 45' · Hélio Varela 61'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
Want the model on every match?
SaltaBall reads all 104 matches before kickoff and scores itself against the result, every time. Get the full model for the rest of the World Cup — predictions, the live war room, what-if scenarios and Game Sheets like this one.
One payment, full access through the final on 19 July, then back to free. Not a subscription. Football analytics and entertainment, never betting advice.