SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Mon, 22 Jun 2026 · 01:00 UTC
New Zealand 1–3 Egypt — match statistics
New Zealand
Full time · BC Place, Vancouver
Match statistics
New Zealand Egypt
Timeline
| 15' | ⚽ | Finn Surman — Goal (New Zealand) · 1-0 |
| 17' | 🟨 | Mohanad Lasheen — Yellowcard (Egypt) |
| 20' | 🟨 | Sarpreet Singh — Yellowcard (New Zealand) |
| 34' | 🟨 | Callum McCowatt — Yellowcard (New Zealand) |
| 41' | 🔄 | Ramy Rabia — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 58' | ⚽ | Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf — Goal (Egypt) · 1-1 |
| 66' | 🔄 | Ben Old — Substitution (New Zealand) |
| 67' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah — Goal (Egypt) · 1-2 |
| 76' | 🔄 | Hamza Abdelkarim — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Jesse Randall — Substitution (New Zealand) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Ryan Thomas — Substitution (New Zealand) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Mahmoud Trezeguet — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 82' | ⚽ | Mahmoud Trezeguet — Goal (Egypt) · 1-3 |
| 85' | 🔄 | Hossam Abdelmaguid — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Tyler Bindon — Substitution (New Zealand) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Francis de Vries — Substitution (New Zealand) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Zizo — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Mohamed Abdelmonem — Substitution (Egypt) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ New Zealand·■ draw·■ Egypt—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
0–1 (14%)
actual 1–3 was 11th likeliest (4%)
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.31
actual 1 – 3
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 61%
4 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.7 expected
actual 3
Corners
≈8.7 expected
actual 7
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
M. Salah 47% ⚽ C. Wood 36% O. Marmoush 32% M. Stamenić 24%Scored: Finn Surman 15' · Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf 58' · Mohamed Salah 67' · Mahmoud Trezeguet 82'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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