SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sat, 20 Jun 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Netherlands 5–1 Sweden — match statistics
Netherlands
Full time · NRG Stadium, Houston
Match statistics
Netherlands Sweden
Timeline
| 5' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey — Goal (Netherlands) · 1-0 |
| 17' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey — Goal (Netherlands) · 2-0 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Crysencio Summerville — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 47' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo — Goal (Netherlands) · 3-0 |
| 53' | 🟨 | Gabriel Gudmundsson — Yellowcard (Sweden) |
| 54' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo — Goal (Netherlands) · 4-0 |
| 55' | 🔄 | Anthony Elanga — Substitution (Sweden) |
| 56' | 🔄 | Lucas Bergvall — Substitution (Sweden) |
| 56' | 🔄 | Besfort Zeneli — Substitution (Sweden) |
| 59' | ⚽ | Anthony Elanga — Goal (Sweden) · 4-1 |
| 59' | 🔄 | Teun Koopmeiners — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 59' | 🔄 | Guus Til — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Memphis Depay — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 75' | 🟨 | Yasin Ayari — Yellowcard (Sweden) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Taha Ali — Substitution (Sweden) |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lucas Bergvall — Yellowcard (Sweden) |
| 89' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville — Goal (Netherlands) · 5-1 |
| 90' | 🔄 | Noa Lang — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Elliot Stroud — Substitution (Sweden) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Netherlands·■ draw·■ Sweden—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (15%)
actual 5–1 was 20th likeliest (1%)
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.79
actual 5 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 59%
6 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 57%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.5 expected
actual 3
Corners
≈9.0 expected
actual 7
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
V. van Dijk 45% A. Isak 31% C. Gakpo 31% ⚽ V. Gyökeres 21%Scored: Brian Brobbey 5' · Brian Brobbey 17' · Cody Gakpo 47' · Cody Gakpo 54' · Anthony Elanga 59' · Crysencio Summerville 89'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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