SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sun, 21 Jun 2026 · 04:00 UTC
Tunisia 0–4 Japan — match statistics
Tunisia
Full time · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Match statistics
Tunisia Japan
Timeline
| 4' | ⚽ | Daichi Kamada — Goal (Japan) · 0-1 |
| 31' | ⚽ | Ayase Ueda — Goal (Japan) · 0-2 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Ismaël Gharbi — Substitution (Tunisia) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida — Substitution (Tunisia) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Firas Chaouat — Substitution (Tunisia) |
| 69' | ⚽ | Junya Ito — Goal (Japan) · 0-3 |
| 73' | 🔄 | Junnosuke Suzuki — Substitution (Japan) |
| 74' | 🔄 | Yukinari Sugawara — Substitution (Japan) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Ayumu Seko — Substitution (Japan) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Yuito Suzuki — Substitution (Japan) |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ayase Ueda — Goal (Japan) · 0-4 |
| 84' | 🔄 | Keisuke Goto — Substitution (Japan) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Elias Achouri — Substitution (Tunisia) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Rani Khedira — Substitution (Tunisia) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Tunisia·■ draw·■ Japan—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
0–1 (15%)
actual 0–4 was 8th likeliest (4%)
Expected goals
0.63 – 1.93
actual 0 – 4
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 53%
4 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✓
No — 60%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.3 expected
actual 0
Corners
≈9.9 expected
actual 8
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
T. Kubo 53% K. Mitoma 37% H. Skhiri 26% W. Endo 25%Scored: Daichi Kamada 4' · Ayase Ueda 31' · Junya Ito 69' · Ayase Ueda 83'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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