SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sun, 21 Jun 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Ecuador 0–0 Curaçao — match statistics
Ecuador
Full time · Arrowhead, Kansas City
Match statistics
Ecuador Curaçao
Timeline
| 38' | 🟨 | Jordy Alcívar — Yellowcard (Ecuador) |
| 39' | 🟨 | Leandro Bacuna — Yellowcard (Curaçao) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Kevin Rodríguez — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 53' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna — Yellowcard (Curaçao) |
| 56' | 🟨 | Livano Comenencia — Yellowcard (Curaçao) |
| 70' | 🔄 | Nilson Angulo — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Kenji Gorré — Substitution (Curaçao) |
| 75' | 🟨 | Juriën Gaari — Yellowcard (Curaçao) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Roshon van Eijma — Substitution (Curaçao) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Jearl Margaritha — Substitution (Curaçao) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Gervane Kastaneer — Substitution (Curaçao) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Angelo Preciado — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 84' | 🔄 | Godfried Roemeratoe — Substitution (Curaçao) |
| 89' | 🔄 | Jordy Caicedo — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gervane Kastaneer — Yellowcard (Curaçao) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Ecuador·■ draw·■ Curaçao—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
2–0 (15%)
actual 0–0 was 6th likeliest (7%)
Expected goals
2.21 – 0.55
actual 0 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✗
Over — 52%
0 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 62%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.1 expected
actual 6
Corners
≈10.7 expected
actual 9
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
M. Caicedo 58% K. Páez 41% E. Valencia 28% L. Bacuna 23%Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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