SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sat, 20 Jun 2026 · 03:00 UTC
Türkiye 0–1 Paraguay — match statistics
Türkiye
Full time · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay
Match statistics
Türkiye Paraguay
Timeline
| 2' | ⚽ | Matías Galarza Fonda — Goal (Paraguay) · 0-1 |
| 4' | 🟨 | Matías Galarza Fonda — Yellowcard (Paraguay) |
| 45' | 🟥 | Miguel Almirón — Redcard (Paraguay) |
| 45' | • | Miguel Almirón — VAR_CARD (Paraguay) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Damián Bobadilla — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Barış Alper Yılmaz — Substitution (Türkiye) |
| 60' | 🔄 | Deniz Gül — Substitution (Türkiye) |
| 60' | 🔄 | Can Uzun — Substitution (Türkiye) |
| 63' | 🟨 | Vincenzo Montella — Yellowcard (Türkiye) |
| 67' | 🔄 | Gustavo Velázquez — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 70' | 🔄 | Eren Elmalı — Substitution (Türkiye) |
| 71' | 🟨 | Eren Elmalı — Yellowcard (Türkiye) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Alexandro Maidana — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Orkun Kökçü — Substitution (Türkiye) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Gabriel Ávalos — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 90' | 🔄 | José Canale — Substitution (Paraguay) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Türkiye·■ draw·■ Paraguay—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (14%)
actual 0–1 was 4th likeliest (10%)
Expected goals
1.26 – 0.96
actual 0 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 62%
1 goal scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 56%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.8 expected
actual 4
Corners
≈8.6 expected
actual 12
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
A. Güler 39% M. Almirón 37% H. Çalhanoğlu 26% A. Sanabria 25%Scored: Matías Galarza Fonda 2'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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