SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sat, 20 Jun 2026 · 00:30 UTC
Brazil 3–0 Haiti — match statistics
Brazil
Full time · Lincoln Financial, Philadelphia
Match statistics
Brazil Haiti
Timeline
| 4' | 🟨 | Carlens Arcus — Yellowcard (Haiti) |
| 23' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha — Goal (Brazil) · 1-0 |
| 36' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha — Goal (Brazil) · 2-0 |
| 40' | 🔄 | Rayan — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 45' | ⚽ | Vinicius Junior — Goal (Brazil) · 3-0 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Frantzdy Pierrot — Yellowcard (Haiti) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Wilson Isidor — Substitution (Haiti) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Dominique Celidor Simon — Substitution (Haiti) |
| 62' | 🔄 | Louicius Deedson — Substitution (Haiti) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Endrick — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Gabriel Martinelli — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 65' | 🟨 | Douglas Santos — Yellowcard (Brazil) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Lenny Joseph — Substitution (Haiti) |
| 72' | 🟨 | Danley Jean Jacques — Yellowcard (Haiti) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Éderson — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Derrick Etienne Jr. — Substitution (Haiti) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Danilo — Substitution (Brazil) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Brazil·■ draw·■ Haiti—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
2–0 (15%)
actual 3–0 was 3rd likeliest (11%)
Expected goals
2.17 – 0.56
actual 3 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Over — 51%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✓
No — 62%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.1 expected
actual 4
Corners
≈10.6 expected
actual 8
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
Vinícius Jr. 57% Raphinha 41% Rodrygo 28% F. Pierrot 23%Scored: Matheus Cunha 23' · Matheus Cunha 36' · Vinicius Junior 45'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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