SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Thu, 18 Jun 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Canada 6–0 Qatar — match statistics
Canada
Full time · BC Place, Vancouver
Match statistics
Canada Qatar
Timeline
| 9' | 🟨 | Derek Cornelius — Yellowcard (Canada) |
| 16' | ⚽ | Cyle Larin — Goal (Canada) · 1-0 |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jonathan David — Goal (Canada) · 2-0 |
| 33' | 🟥 | Homam Al-Amin — Redcard (Qatar) |
| 33' | • | Homam Al-Amin — VAR_CARD (Qatar) |
| 40' | 🔄 | Sultan Al-Brake — Substitution (Qatar) |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jonathan David — Goal (Canada) · 3-0 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Mohamed Al-Mannai — Substitution (Qatar) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Moïse Bombito — Substitution (Canada) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Ahmed Fathi — Substitution (Qatar) |
| 53' | 🟥 | Assim Madibo — Redcard (Qatar) |
| 53' | • | Assim Madibo — VAR_CARD (Qatar) |
| 57' | 🔄 | Nathan-Dylan Saliba — Substitution (Canada) |
| 59' | 🔄 | Al-Hashmi Al-Hussain — Substitution (Qatar) |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ahmed Fathi — Yellowcard (Qatar) |
| 64' | ⚽ | Nathan-Dylan Saliba — Goal (Canada) · 4-0 |
| 71' | 🔄 | Tani Oluwaseyi — Substitution (Canada) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Jacob Shaffelburg — Substitution (Canada) |
| 75' | ⚽ | Mohamed Al-Mannai — Own Goal (Canada) · 5-0 |
| 83' | 🔄 | Niko Sigur — Substitution (Canada) |
| 87' | 🔄 | Lucas Mendes — Substitution (Qatar) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jonathan David — Goal (Canada) · 6-0 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Canada·■ draw·■ Qatar—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
2–0 (14%)
actual 6–0 was 16th likeliest (2%)
Expected goals
2.50 – 0.62
actual 6 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Over — 60%
6 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✓
No — 58%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.0 expected
actual 4
Corners
≈12.2 expected
actual 20
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
A. Davies 62% J. David 45% ⚽ S. Larin 31% ⚽ A. Afif 26%Scored: Cyle Larin 16' · Jonathan David 29' · Jonathan David 45' · Nathan-Dylan Saliba 64' · Mohamed Al-Mannai (og) 75' · Jonathan David 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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