SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Thu, 18 Jun 2026 · 16:00 UTC
Czechia 1–1 South Africa — match statistics
Czechia
Full time · Mercedes-Benz, Atlanta
Match statistics
Czechia South Africa
Timeline
| 6' | ⚽ | Michal Sadílek — Goal (Czechia) · 1-0 |
| 33' | 🟨 | Teboho Mokoena — Yellowcard (South Africa) |
| 40' | 🟨 | Thalente Mbatha — Yellowcard (South Africa) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Relebohile Mofokeng — Substitution (South Africa) |
| 55' | 🔄 | Pavel Sulc — Substitution (Czechia) |
| 55' | 🔄 | Jaroslav Zelený — Substitution (Czechia) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Evidence Makgopa — Substitution (South Africa) |
| 67' | 🔄 | Lukas Provod — Substitution (Czechia) |
| 67' | 🔄 | Tomáš Souček — Substitution (Czechia) |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ladislav Krejci — Yellowcard (Czechia) |
| 78' | 🔄 | David Zima — Substitution (Czechia) |
| 83' | ⚽ | Teboho Mokoena — Penalty (South Africa) · 1-1 |
| 84' | 🔄 | Kamogelo Sebelebele — Substitution (South Africa) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Czechia·■ draw·■ South Africa—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (14%)
actual 1–1 was 2nd likeliest (13%)
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.91
actual 1 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 61%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.7 expected
actual 3
Corners
≈8.7 expected
actual 10
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
P. Schick 47% L. Foster 35% A. Hložek 33% P. Tau 24%Scored: Michal Sadílek 6' · Teboho Mokoena 83'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
Want the model on every match?
SaltaBall reads all 104 matches before kickoff and scores itself against the result, every time. Get the full model for the rest of the World Cup — predictions, the live war room, what-if scenarios and Game Sheets like this one.
One payment, full access through the final on 19 July, then back to free. Not a subscription. Football analytics and entertainment, never betting advice.