SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Wed, 17 Jun 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Ghana 1–0 Panama — match statistics
Ghana
Full time · BMO Field, Toronto
Match statistics
Ghana Panama
Timeline
| 16' | 🟨 | Caleb Yirenkyi — Yellowcard (Ghana) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Benjamin Asare — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Brandon Thomas-Asante — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Issahaku Fatawu — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 63' | 🔄 | José Fajardo — Substitution (Panama) |
| 63' | 🔄 | Azarias Londoño — Substitution (Panama) |
| 72' | 🟨 | César Blackman — Yellowcard (Panama) |
| 74' | 🔄 | Ismael Díaz — Substitution (Panama) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Kwasi Sibo — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 87' | 🔄 | Prince Adu — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Caleb Yirenkyi — Goal (Ghana) · 1-0 |
| 90' | 🔄 | Aníbal Godoy — Substitution (Panama) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Harvey — Yellowcard (Panama) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Ghana·■ draw·■ Panama—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
0–1 (15%)
actual 1–0 was 7th likeliest (6%)
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.65
actual 1 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 57%
1 goal scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 58%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.4 expected
actual 3
Corners
≈9.3 expected
actual 4
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
A. Carrasquilla 55% J. Fajardo 39% M. Kudus 30% I. Williams 20%Scored: Caleb Yirenkyi 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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