SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Wed, 17 Jun 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Portugal 1–1 DR Congo — match statistics
Portugal
Full time · NRG Stadium, Houston
Match statistics
Portugal DR Congo
Timeline
| 6' | ⚽ | João Neves — Goal (Portugal) · 1-0 |
| 13' | 🟨 | Bernardo Silva — Yellowcard (Portugal) |
| 32' | 🟨 | Chancel Mbemba — Yellowcard (DR Congo) |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa — Goal (DR Congo) · 1-1 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Francisco Conceição — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 57' | 🔄 | Noah Sadiki — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Rafael Leão — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Nélson Semedo — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 74' | 🔄 | Joris Kayembe — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 74' | 🔄 | Charles Pickel — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Gonçalo Ramos — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Simon Banza — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Gédéon Kalulu — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo — Yellowcard (Portugal) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tomás Araújo — Yellowcard (Portugal) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Portugal·■ draw·■ DR Congo—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (15%)
actual 1–1 was 3rd likeliest (10%)
Expected goals
1.89 – 0.64
actual 1 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 54%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✗
No — 60%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.3 expected
actual 4
Corners
≈9.8 expected
actual 9
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
C. Ronaldo 52% Bruno Fernandes 37% S. Bakambu 27% Vitinha 25%Scored: João Neves 6' · Yoane Wissa 45'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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