SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Thu, 18 Jun 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Uzbekistan 1–3 Colombia — match statistics
Uzbekistan
Full time · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Match statistics
Uzbekistan Colombia
Timeline
| 7' | 🟨 | Johan Mojica — Yellowcard (Colombia) |
| 34' | 🟨 | Abdukodir Khusanov — Yellowcard (Uzbekistan) |
| 40' | ⚽ | Daniel Muñoz — Goal (Colombia) · 0-1 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Dostonbek Khamdamov — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Farrukh Sayfiev — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
| 60' | ⚽ | Abbosbek Fayzullaev — Goal (Uzbekistan) · 1-1 |
| 65' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz — Goal (Colombia) · 1-2 |
| 72' | 🔄 | Jáminton Campaz — Substitution (Colombia) |
| 77' | 🔄 | Azizbek Amanov — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
| 77' | 🔄 | Jakhongir Urozov — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Cucho Hernández — Substitution (Colombia) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Richard Ríos — Substitution (Colombia) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jáminton Campaz — Goal (Colombia) · 1-3 |
| 90' | 🔄 | Kevin Castaño — Substitution (Colombia) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Andrés Gómez — Substitution (Colombia) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Igor Sergeev — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Uzbekistan·■ draw·■ Colombia—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
0–1 (15%)
actual 1–3 was 8th likeliest (5%)
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.65
actual 1 – 3
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 57%
4 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 58%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.4 expected
actual 2
Corners
≈9.3 expected
actual 7
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
L. Díaz 47% ⚽ J. Rodríguez 33% E. Shomurodov 30% R. Falcao 22%Scored: Daniel Muñoz 40' · Abbosbek Fayzullaev 60' · Luis Díaz 65' · Jáminton Campaz 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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