SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Wed, 17 Jun 2026 · 04:00 UTC
Austria 3–1 Jordan — match statistics
Austria
Full time · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay
Match statistics
Austria Jordan
Timeline
| 21' | ⚽ | Romano Schmid — Goal (Austria) · 1-0 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Marko Arnautovic — Substitution (Austria) |
| 50' | ⚽ | Ali Olwan — Goal (Jordan) · 1-1 |
| 59' | 🔄 | Carney Chukwuemeka — Substitution (Austria) |
| 59' | 🔄 | Kevin Danso — Substitution (Austria) |
| 59' | 🔄 | Paul Wanner — Substitution (Austria) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Saleem Obaid — Substitution (Jordan) |
| 76' | ⚽ | Yazan Al-Arab — Own Goal (Austria) · 2-1 |
| 77' | 🟨 | Marcel Sabitzer — Yellowcard (Austria) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Mahmoud Al-Mardi — Substitution (Jordan) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Saed Al-Rousan — Substitution (Jordan) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Patrick Wimmer — Substitution (Austria) |
| 88' | 🔄 | Mohammad Al-Dawoud — Substitution (Jordan) |
| 89' | 🔄 | Ali Azaizeh — Substitution (Jordan) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic — Penalty (Austria) · 3-1 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Austria·■ draw·■ Jordan—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (14%)
actual 3–1 was 11th likeliest (4%)
Expected goals
1.32 – 0.92
actual 3 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 61%
4 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.7 expected
actual 1
Corners
≈8.7 expected
actual 7
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
M. Sabitzer 47% Musa Al-Taamari 36% K. Baumgartner 32% Yazan Al-Naimat 24%Scored: Romano Schmid 21' · Ali Olwan 50' · Yazan Al-Arab (og) 76' · Marko Arnautovic 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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