SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Tue, 16 Jun 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Iraq 1–4 Norway — match statistics
Iraq
Full time · Gillette Stadium, Boston
Match statistics
Iraq Norway
Timeline
| 29' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland — Goal (Norway) · 0-1 |
| 39' | ⚽ | Aymen Hussein — Goal (Iraq) · 1-1 |
| 43' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland — Goal (Norway) · 1-2 |
| 59' | 🔄 | Marko Farji — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 59' | 🔄 | Zidane Iqbal — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Oscar Bobb — Substitution (Norway) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Leo Østigård — Substitution (Norway) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Ahmed Qasem — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Mustafa Saadoon — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Andreas Schjelderup — Substitution (Norway) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Kristian Thorstvedt — Substitution (Norway) |
| 76' | ⚽ | Leo Østigård — Goal (Norway) · 1-3 |
| 78' | 🔄 | Mohanad Ali — Substitution (Iraq) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Patrick Berg — Substitution (Norway) |
| 86' | 🟨 | Zaid Tahseen — Yellowcard (Iraq) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aymen Hussein — Own Goal (Norway) · 1-4 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Iraq·■ draw·■ Norway—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
0–1 (15%)
actual 1–4 was 12th likeliest (2%)
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.72
actual 1 – 4
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 56%
5 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 59%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.4 expected
actual 1
Corners
≈9.4 expected
actual 7
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
E. Haaland 56% ⚽ M. Ødegaard 40% A. Hussein 29% ⚽ Aymen Hussein 19% ⚽Scored: Erling Haaland 29' · Aymen Hussein 39' · Erling Haaland 43' · Leo Østigård 76' · Aymen Hussein (og) 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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