SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Tue, 16 Jun 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Iran 2–2 New Zealand — match statistics
Iran
Full time · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Match statistics
Iran New Zealand
Timeline
| 7' | ⚽ | Elijah Just — Goal (New Zealand) · 0-1 |
| 32' | ⚽ | Ramin Rezaeian — Goal (Iran) · 1-1 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Mehdi Ghayedi — Substitution (Iran) |
| 53' | 🔄 | Ali Alipour — Substitution (Iran) |
| 54' | ⚽ | Elijah Just — Goal (New Zealand) · 1-2 |
| 64' | ⚽ | Mohammad Mohebi — Goal (Iran) · 2-2 |
| 65' | 🔄 | Ehsan Hajsafi — Substitution (Iran) |
| 68' | 🔄 | Ben Old — Substitution (New Zealand) |
| 68' | 🔄 | Ryan Thomas — Substitution (New Zealand) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Callan Elliot — Substitution (New Zealand) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh — Substitution (Iran) |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ehsan Hajsafi — Yellowcard (Iran) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Tyler Bindon — Substitution (New Zealand) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Jesse Randall — Substitution (New Zealand) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Iran·■ draw·■ New Zealand—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (14%)
actual 2–2 was 10th likeliest (4%)
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.80
actual 2 – 2
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 59%
4 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 57%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.5 expected
actual 1
Corners
≈9.0 expected
actual 5
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
M. Taremi 52% A. Jahanbakhsh 36% C. Wood 32% M. Stamenić 21%Scored: Elijah Just 7' · Ramin Rezaeian 32' · Elijah Just 54' · Mohammad Mohebi 64'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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