SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sun, 14 Jun 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Germany 7–1 Curaçao — match statistics
Germany
Full time · NRG Stadium, Houston
Match statistics
Germany Curaçao
Timeline
| 6' | ⚽ | Felix Nmecha — Goal (Germany) · 1-0 |
| 21' | ⚽ | Livano Comenencia — Goal (Curaçao) · 1-1 |
| 38' | ⚽ | Nico Schlotterbeck — Goal (Germany) · 2-1 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz — Penalty (Germany) · 3-1 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Jeremy Antonisse — Substitution (Curaçao) |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jamal Musiala — Goal (Germany) · 4-1 |
| 64' | 🔄 | Deniz Undav — Substitution (Germany) |
| 65' | 🔄 | Jearl Margaritha — Substitution (Curaçao) |
| 68' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Brown — Goal (Germany) · 5-1 |
| 73' | 🔄 | Leon Goretzka — Substitution (Germany) |
| 73' | 🔄 | David Raum — Substitution (Germany) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Antonio Rüdiger — Substitution (Germany) |
| 78' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav — Goal (Germany) · 6-1 |
| 83' | 🔄 | Waldemar Anton — Substitution (Germany) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Gervane Kastaneer — Substitution (Curaçao) |
| 88' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz — Goal (Germany) · 7-1 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Germany·■ draw·■ Curaçao—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
2–0 (16%)
actual 7–1 was 25th likeliest (0%)
Expected goals
2.26 – 0.53
actual 7 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✓
Over — 53%
8 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 63%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.1 expected
actual 0
Corners
≈10.9 expected
actual 9
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
J. Musiala 58% ⚽ F. Wirtz 42% K. Havertz 29% ⚽ L. Bacuna 23%Scored: Felix Nmecha 6' · Livano Comenencia 21' · Nico Schlotterbeck 38' · Kai Havertz 45' · Jamal Musiala 47' · Nathaniel Brown 68' · Deniz Undav 78' · Kai Havertz 88'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
Want the model on every match?
SaltaBall reads all 104 matches before kickoff and scores itself against the result, every time. Get the full model for the rest of the World Cup — predictions, the live war room, what-if scenarios and Game Sheets like this one.
One payment, full access through the final on 19 July, then back to free. Not a subscription. Football analytics and entertainment, never betting advice.