SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sun, 14 Jun 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador — match statistics
Ivory Coast
Full time · Lincoln Financial, Philadelphia
Match statistics
Ivory Coast Ecuador
Timeline
| 28' | 🟨 | Seko Fofana — Yellowcard (Ivory Coast) |
| 38' | 🟨 | Franck Kessié — Yellowcard (Ivory Coast) |
| 40' | 🟨 | Guela Doué — Yellowcard (Ivory Coast) |
| 56' | 🔄 | Nilson Angulo — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 56' | 🔄 | Ange-Yoan Bonny — Substitution (Ivory Coast) |
| 56' | 🔄 | Amad Diallo — Substitution (Ivory Coast) |
| 62' | 🔄 | Jackson Porozo — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 62' | 🔄 | Angelo Preciado — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jackson Porozo — Yellowcard (Ecuador) |
| 77' | 🔄 | Christ Inao Oulaï — Substitution (Ivory Coast) |
| 77' | 🔄 | Kevin Rodríguez — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 77' | 🔄 | Ibrahim Sangaré — Substitution (Ivory Coast) |
| 89' | 🔄 | Odilon Kossounou — Substitution (Ivory Coast) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Amad Diallo — Goal (Ivory Coast) · 1-0 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Ivory Coast·■ draw·■ Ecuador—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
0–1 (15%)
actual 1–0 was 7th likeliest (6%)
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.65
actual 1 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 57%
1 goal scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 58%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.5 expected
actual 4
Corners
≈9.3 expected
actual 8
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
M. Caicedo 47% K. Páez 33% S. Haller 30% E. Valencia 22%Scored: Amad Diallo 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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