SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sun, 14 Jun 2026 · 04:00 UTC
Australia 2–0 Türkiye — match statistics
Australia
Full time · BC Place, Vancouver
Match statistics
Australia Türkiye
Timeline
| 27' | ⚽ | Nestory Irankunda — Goal (Australia) · 1-0 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Kenan Yıldız — Substitution (Türkiye) |
| 61' | 🔄 | Nishan Velupillay — Substitution (Australia) |
| 62' | 🔄 | Yunus Akgün — Substitution (Türkiye) |
| 74' | 🔄 | Jason Geria — Substitution (Australia) |
| 74' | 🔄 | Tete Yengi — Substitution (Australia) |
| 75' | ⚽ | Connor Metcalfe — Goal (Australia) · 2-0 |
| 81' | 🔄 | Mert Müldür — Substitution (Türkiye) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Salih Özcan — Substitution (Türkiye) |
| 84' | 🔄 | Aziz Behich — Substitution (Australia) |
| 84' | 🔄 | Jackson Irvine — Substitution (Australia) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Deniz Gül — Substitution (Türkiye) |
| 86' | 🟨 | Yunus Akgün — Yellowcard (Türkiye) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Australia·■ draw·■ Türkiye—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (14%)
actual 2–0 was 8th likeliest (5%)
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.26
actual 2 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 62%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 56%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.8 expected
actual 1
Corners
≈8.6 expected
actual 13
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
A. Güler 39% J. Irvine 37% H. Çalhanoğlu 26% M. Boyle 25%Scored: Nestory Irankunda 27' · Connor Metcalfe 75'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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