SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Fri, 12 Jun 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Canada 1–1 Bosnia & Herz. — match statistics
Canada
Full time · BMO Field, Toronto
Match statistics
Canada Bosnia & Herz.
Timeline
| 11' | 🟨 | Alistair Johnston — Yellowcard (Canada) |
| 21' | ⚽ | Jovo Lukic — Goal (Bosnia & Herz.) · 0-1 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ermedin Demirovic — Yellowcard (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jovo Lukic — Yellowcard (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 53' | 🟨 | Luc De Fougerolles — Yellowcard (Canada) |
| 61' | 🔄 | Ali Ahmed — Substitution (Canada) |
| 61' | 🔄 | Promise David — Substitution (Canada) |
| 61' | 🔄 | Jacob Shaffelburg — Substitution (Canada) |
| 62' | 🔄 | Samed Bazdar — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 62' | 🔄 | Armin Gigovic — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 74' | 🔄 | Kerim Alajbegovic — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 74' | 🔄 | Ivan Sunjic — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Cyle Larin — Substitution (Canada) |
| 78' | ⚽ | Cyle Larin — Goal (Canada) · 1-1 |
| 84' | 🔄 | Dzenis Burnic — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Jonathan Osorio — Substitution (Canada) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nikola Katic — Yellowcard (Bosnia & Herz.) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Canada·■ draw·■ Bosnia & Herz.—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
2–0 (13%)
actual 1–1 was 5th likeliest (9%)
Expected goals
2.22 – 0.70
actual 1 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Over — 56%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✗
No — 55%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.2 expected
actual 5
Corners
≈11.4 expected
actual 13
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
A. Davies 58% J. David 41% E. Džeko 29% S. Larin 28% ⚽Scored: Jovo Lukic 21' · Cyle Larin 78'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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