SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sun, 21 Jun 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Belgium 0–0 Iran — match statistics
Belgium
Full time · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Match statistics
Belgium Iran
Timeline
| 3' | 🟨 | Romelu Lukaku — Yellowcard (Belgium) |
| 33' | 🟨 | Saeed Ezatolahi — Yellowcard (Iran) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Alireza Jahanbakhsh — Substitution (Iran) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Timothy Castagne — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Dodi Lukébakio — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Hans Vanaken — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Milad Mohammadi — Substitution (Iran) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Mehdi Torabi — Substitution (Iran) |
| 66' | 🟥 | Nathan Ngoy — Redcard (Belgium) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Arthur Theate — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Shahriar Moghanlou — Substitution (Iran) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh — Substitution (Iran) |
| 87' | 🔄 | Matías Fernández-Pardo — Substitution (Belgium) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Belgium·■ draw·■ Iran—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (14%)
actual 0–0 was 3rd likeliest (12%)
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.00
actual 0 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 62%
0 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 56%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.9 expected
actual 3
Corners
≈8.6 expected
actual 6
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
M. Taremi 38% K. De Bruyne 37% A. Jahanbakhsh 26% J. Doku 25%Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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