SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Tue, 23 Jun 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Panama 0–1 Croatia — match statistics
Panama
Full time · BMO Field, Toronto
Match statistics
Panama Croatia
Timeline
| 46' | 🔄 | Ante Budimir — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Andrej Kramaric — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 54' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir — Goal (Croatia) · 0-1 |
| 61' | 🟨 | Yoel Bárcenas — Yellowcard (Panama) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Luka Sucic — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Petar Sučić — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 77' | 🔄 | Cecilio Waterman — Substitution (Panama) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Mario Pašalić — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Azarias Londoño — Substitution (Panama) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Éric Davis — Substitution (Panama) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Tomás Rodríguez — Substitution (Panama) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Petar Sučić — Yellowcard (Croatia) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Panama·■ draw·■ Croatia—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✓
0–1 (14%)
exactly what happened: 0–1
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.42
actual 0 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 60%
1 goal scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 57%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.6 expected
actual 2
Corners
≈8.8 expected
actual 9
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
L. Modrić 43% A. Carrasquilla 34% J. Gvardiol 29% J. Fajardo 22%Scored: Ante Budimir 54'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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