SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sat, 27 Jun 2026 · 21:00 UTC
Croatia 2–1 Ghana — match statistics
Croatia
Full time · Lincoln Financial, Philadelphia
Match statistics
Croatia Ghana
Timeline
| 31' | ⚽ | Petar Sučić — Goal (Croatia) · 1-0 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Issahaku Fatawu — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Kojo Peprah Oppong — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Igor Matanovic — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ivan Perišić — Yellowcard (Croatia) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Brandon Thomas-Asante — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Ernest Nuamah — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 73' | ⚽ | Derrick Luckassen — Goal (Ghana) · 1-1 |
| 78' | 🔄 | Mario Pašalić — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 83' | ⚽ | Nikola Vlašić — Goal (Croatia) · 2-1 |
| 85' | 🔄 | Caleb Yirenkyi — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 88' | 🔄 | Josko Gvardiol — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 88' | 🔄 | Marco Pašalić — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kojo Peprah Oppong — Yellowcard (Ghana) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Croatia·■ draw·■ Ghana—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (15%)
actual 2–1 was 4th likeliest (9%)
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.69
actual 2 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 56%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 59%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.4 expected
actual 2
Corners
≈9.5 expected
actual 5
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
L. Modrić 49% J. Gvardiol 34% M. Kudus 28% M. Kovačić 23%Scored: Petar Sučić 31' · Derrick Luckassen 73' · Nikola Vlašić 83'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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