SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Wed, 17 Jun 2026 · 20:00 UTC
England 4–2 Croatia — match statistics
England
Full time · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Match statistics
England Croatia
Timeline
| 12' | ⚽ | Harry Kane — Penalty (England) · 1-0 |
| 36' | ⚽ | Martin Baturina — Goal (Croatia) · 1-1 |
| 42' | ⚽ | Harry Kane — Goal (England) · 2-1 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Petar Musa — Goal (Croatia) · 2-2 |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham — Goal (England) · 3-2 |
| 58' | 🔄 | Mateo Kovacic — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Igor Matanovic — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Marco Pašalić — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Marcus Rashford — Substitution (England) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Morgan Rogers — Substitution (England) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Bukayo Saka — Substitution (England) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Andrej Kramaric — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Nikola Vlašić — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Djed Spence — Substitution (England) |
| 85' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford — Goal (England) · 4-2 |
| 87' | 🔄 | Marc Guéhi — Substitution (England) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ England·■ draw·■ Croatia—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (14%)
actual 4–2 was 18th likeliest (1%)
Expected goals
1.32 – 0.92
actual 4 – 2
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 61%
6 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.7 expected
actual 0
Corners
≈8.7 expected
actual 10
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
J. Bellingham 40% ⚽ L. Modrić 30% H. Kane 27% ⚽ J. Gvardiol 20%Scored: Harry Kane 12' · Martin Baturina 36' · Harry Kane 42' · Petar Musa 45' · Jude Bellingham 47' · Marcus Rashford 85'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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