SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Tue, 23 Jun 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Portugal 5–0 Uzbekistan — match statistics
Portugal
Full time · NRG Stadium, Houston
Match statistics
Portugal Uzbekistan
Timeline
| 6' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo — Goal (Portugal) · 1-0 |
| 14' | 🟨 | Odildzhon Khamrobekov — Yellowcard (Uzbekistan) |
| 17' | ⚽ | Nuno Mendes — Goal (Portugal) · 2-0 |
| 39' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo — Goal (Portugal) · 3-0 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Khozhiakbar Alizhonov — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Francisco Conceição — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Akmal Mozgovoy — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Nélson Semedo — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 60' | ⚽ | Abduvokhid Nematov — Own Goal (Portugal) · 4-0 |
| 63' | 🔄 | Francisco Trincão — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 68' | 🟨 | Renato Veiga — Yellowcard (Portugal) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Igor Sergeev — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Bernardo Silva — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Rafael Leão — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 87' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão — Goal (Portugal) · 5-0 |
| 90' | 🔄 | Sherzod Esanov — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Ruslanbek Jiyanov — Substitution (Uzbekistan) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Portugal·■ draw·■ Uzbekistan—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (15%)
actual 5–0 was 15th likeliest (1%)
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.71
actual 5 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 57%
5 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✓
No — 58%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.4 expected
actual 2
Corners
≈9.4 expected
actual 5
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
C. Ronaldo 48% ⚽ Bruno Fernandes 34% E. Shomurodov 29% Vitinha 22%Scored: Cristiano Ronaldo 6' · Nuno Mendes 17' · Cristiano Ronaldo 39' · Abduvokhid Nematov (og) 60' · Rafael Leão 87'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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