SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Mon, 22 Jun 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Argentina 2–0 Austria — match statistics
Argentina
Full time · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Match statistics
Argentina Austria
Timeline
| 9' | ❌ | Lionel Messi — Missed Penalty (Argentina) |
| 38' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi — Goal (Argentina) · 1-0 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Stefan Posch — Yellowcard (Austria) |
| 57' | 🔄 | Nicolás Otamendi — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Julián Álvarez — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 65' | 🔄 | Nico González — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 67' | 🔄 | Marco Friedl — Substitution (Austria) |
| 68' | 🔄 | Marko Arnautovic — Substitution (Austria) |
| 68' | 🔄 | Alexander Prass — Substitution (Austria) |
| 76' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer — Yellowcard (Austria) |
| 76' | 🟨 | Facundo Medina — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Patrick Wimmer — Substitution (Austria) |
| 82' | 🔄 | Leandro Paredes — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 82' | 🔄 | Nicolás Tagliafico — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Carney Chukwuemeka — Substitution (Austria) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi — Goal (Argentina) · 2-0 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Argentina·■ draw·■ Austria—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (15%)
actual 2–0 was 2nd likeliest (14%)
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.63
actual 2 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 53%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 60%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.3 expected
actual 4
Corners
≈9.9 expected
actual 4
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
L. Messi 52% ⚽ J. Álvarez 37% M. Sabitzer 26% E. Martínez 25%Scored: Lionel Messi 38' · Lionel Messi 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
Want the model on every match?
SaltaBall reads all 104 matches before kickoff and scores itself against the result, every time. Get the full model for the rest of the World Cup — predictions, the live war room, what-if scenarios and Game Sheets like this one.
One payment, full access through the final on 19 July, then back to free. Not a subscription. Football analytics and entertainment, never betting advice.