SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Wed, 17 Jun 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Argentina 3–0 Algeria — match statistics
Argentina
Full time · Arrowhead, Kansas City
Match statistics
Argentina Algeria
Timeline
| 17' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi — Goal (Argentina) · 1-0 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Nahuel Molina — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 55' | 🔄 | Julián Álvarez — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 55' | 🔄 | Nico González — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 60' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi — Goal (Argentina) · 2-0 |
| 64' | 🔄 | Mohamed Amoura — Substitution (Algeria) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Houssem Aouar — Substitution (Algeria) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Riyad Mahrez — Substitution (Algeria) |
| 76' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi — Goal (Argentina) · 3-0 |
| 80' | 🔄 | Nicolás Otamendi — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Nico Paz — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Adil Boulbina — Substitution (Algeria) |
| 82' | 🔄 | Ramiz Zerrouki — Substitution (Algeria) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Argentina·■ draw·■ Algeria—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
2–0 (15%)
actual 3–0 was 3rd likeliest (10%)
Expected goals
2.06 – 0.59
actual 3 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 51%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✓
No — 61%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.2 expected
actual 0
Corners
≈10.3 expected
actual 4
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
L. Messi 55% ⚽ J. Álvarez 39% E. Martínez 27% R. Mahrez 25%Scored: Lionel Messi 17' · Lionel Messi 60' · Lionel Messi 76'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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