SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Fri, 26 Jun 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Norway 1–4 France — match statistics
Norway
Full time · Gillette Stadium, Boston
Match statistics
Norway France
Timeline
| 7' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé — Goal (France) · 0-1 |
| 10' | 🟨 | Patrick Berg — Yellowcard (Norway) |
| 20' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé — Goal (France) · 0-2 |
| 21' | ⚽ | Thelo Aasgaard — Goal (Norway) · 1-2 |
| 32' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé — Goal (France) · 1-3 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Marcus Pedersen — Substitution (Norway) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Morten Thorsby — Substitution (Norway) |
| 50' | ❌ | Jørgen Strand Larsen — Missed Penalty (Norway) |
| 65' | 🔄 | Bradley Barcola — Substitution (France) |
| 65' | 🔄 | Rayan Cherki — Substitution (France) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Sondre Langås — Substitution (Norway) |
| 74' | 🟨 | Aurélien Tchouaméni — Yellowcard (France) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Ibrahima Konaté — Substitution (France) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Jens Petter Hauge — Substitution (Norway) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Antonio Nusa — Substitution (Norway) |
| 87' | 🔄 | Malo Gusto — Substitution (France) |
| 87' | 🔄 | Jean-Philippe Mateta — Substitution (France) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Désiré Doué — Goal (France) · 1-4 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Norway·■ draw·■ France—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
0–1 (14%)
actual 1–4 was 14th likeliest (2%)
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.45
actual 1 – 4
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 60%
5 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 57%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.7 expected
actual 2
Corners
≈8.9 expected
actual 9
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
K. Mbappé 43% E. Haaland 33% O. Dembélé 29% ⚽ M. Ødegaard 22%Scored: Ousmane Dembélé 7' · Ousmane Dembélé 20' · Thelo Aasgaard 21' · Ousmane Dembélé 32' · Désiré Doué 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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