SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Tue, 16 Jun 2026 · 19:00 UTC
France 3–1 Senegal — match statistics
France
Full time · MetLife Stadium, New York / NJ
Match statistics
France Senegal
Timeline
| 66' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé — Goal (France) · 1-0 |
| 75' | 🔄 | Ibrahim Mbaye — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Habib Diarra — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Bradley Barcola — Substitution (France) |
| 82' | ⚽ | Bradley Barcola — Goal (France) · 2-0 |
| 83' | 🔄 | Bamba Dieng — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Iliman Ndiaye — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 87' | 🔄 | Rayan Cherki — Substitution (France) |
| 88' | 🔄 | Pathé Ciss — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Mbaye — Goal (Senegal) · 2-1 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé — Goal (France) · 3-1 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ France·■ draw·■ Senegal—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (15%)
actual 3–1 was 8th likeliest (5%)
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.73
actual 3 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 57%
4 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 58%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.5 expected
actual 0
Corners
≈9.3 expected
actual 10
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
K. Mbappé 47% ⚽ O. Dembélé 33% S. Mané 25% A. Tchouaméni 22%Scored: Kylian Mbappé 66' · Bradley Barcola 82' · Ibrahim Mbaye 90' · Kylian Mbappé 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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