SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sat, 27 Jun 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Uruguay 0–1 Spain — match statistics
Uruguay
Full time · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Match statistics
Uruguay Spain
Timeline
| 42' | ⚽ | Álex Baena — Goal (Spain) · 0-1 |
| 45' | 🔄 | Nicolás de la Cruz — Substitution (Uruguay) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Sergio Rochet — Substitution (Uruguay) |
| 46' | 🟨 | Álex Baena — Yellowcard (Spain) |
| 54' | 🟨 | Juan Manuel Sanabria — Yellowcard (Uruguay) |
| 57' | 🔄 | Federico Viñas — Substitution (Uruguay) |
| 58' | 🟨 | Guillermo Varela — Yellowcard (Uruguay) |
| 60' | 🔄 | Dani Olmo — Substitution (Spain) |
| 60' | 🔄 | Fabián Ruiz — Substitution (Spain) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Yéremy Pino — Substitution (Spain) |
| 70' | 🔄 | Brian Rodríguez — Substitution (Uruguay) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Ferran Torres — Substitution (Spain) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Nico Williams — Substitution (Spain) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolás de la Cruz — Yellowcard (Uruguay) |
| 90' | 🟥 | Agustín Canobbio — Redcard (Uruguay) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Uruguay·■ draw·■ Spain—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✓
0–1 (15%)
exactly what happened: 0–1
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.78
actual 0 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 56%
1 goal scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 59%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.4 expected
actual 5
Corners
≈9.6 expected
actual 7
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
Lamine Yamal 50% Pedri 35% Nico Williams 23% F. Valverde 23%Scored: Álex Baena 42'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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