SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Mon, 15 Jun 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Belgium 1–1 Egypt — match statistics
Belgium
Full time · Lumen Field, Seattle
Match statistics
Belgium Egypt
Timeline
| 13' | 🟨 | Marwan Ateya — Yellowcard (Egypt) |
| 14' | 🟨 | Timothy Castagne — Yellowcard (Belgium) |
| 20' | ⚽ | Emam Ashour — Goal (Egypt) · 0-1 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ahmed Fatouh — Yellowcard (Egypt) |
| 56' | 🔄 | Maxim De Cuyper — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 56' | 🔄 | Nicolas Raskin — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 66' | ⚽ | Mohamed Hany — Own Goal (Belgium) · 1-1 |
| 66' | 🔄 | Romelu Lukaku — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Ramy Rabia — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 75' | 🟨 | Maxim De Cuyper — Yellowcard (Belgium) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Hamza Abdelkarim — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Zizo — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Matías Fernández-Pardo — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Hans Vanaken — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 88' | 🔄 | Ibrahim Adel — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 88' | 🔄 | Karim Hafez Ramadan Seif El Din — Substitution (Egypt) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Belgium·■ draw·■ Egypt—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (14%)
actual 1–1 was 2nd likeliest (13%)
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.88
actual 1 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 61%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.7 expected
actual 4
Corners
≈8.8 expected
actual 9
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
K. De Bruyne 41% M. Salah 34% J. Doku 28% O. Marmoush 23%Scored: Emam Ashour 20' · Mohamed Hany (og) 66'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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