SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sun, 14 Jun 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Netherlands 2–2 Japan — match statistics
Netherlands
Full time · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Match statistics
Netherlands Japan
Timeline
| 51' | ⚽ | Virgil van Dijk — Goal (Netherlands) · 1-0 |
| 57' | ⚽ | Keito Nakamura — Goal (Japan) · 1-1 |
| 61' | 🟨 | Crysencio Summerville — Yellowcard (Netherlands) |
| 64' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville — Goal (Netherlands) · 2-1 |
| 66' | 🔄 | Junya Ito — Substitution (Japan) |
| 70' | 🔄 | Memphis Depay — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 70' | 🔄 | Teun Koopmeiners — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 70' | 🔄 | Quinten Timber — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Koki Ogawa — Substitution (Japan) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Yukinari Sugawara — Substitution (Japan) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Takehiro Tomiyasu — Substitution (Japan) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Nathan Aké — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 83' | 🟨 | Memphis Depay — Yellowcard (Netherlands) |
| 84' | 🔄 | Kento Shiogai — Substitution (Japan) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Brian Brobbey — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 89' | ⚽ | Daichi Kamada — Goal (Japan) · 2-2 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Micky van de Ven — Yellowcard (Netherlands) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Netherlands·■ draw·■ Japan—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (14%)
actual 2–2 was 9th likeliest (4%)
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.05
actual 2 – 2
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 62%
4 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈5.0 expected
actual 3
Corners
≈8.6 expected
actual 9
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
V. van Dijk 36% ⚽ T. Kubo 34% C. Gakpo 24% K. Mitoma 22%Scored: Virgil van Dijk 51' · Keito Nakamura 57' · Crysencio Summerville 64' · Daichi Kamada 89'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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