SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Thu, 25 Jun 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands — match statistics
Tunisia
Full time · Arrowhead, Kansas City
Match statistics
Tunisia Netherlands
Timeline
| 3' | ⚽ | Ellyes Skhiri — Own Goal (Netherlands) · 0-1 |
| 7' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey — Goal (Netherlands) · 0-2 |
| 54' | ⚽ | Hazem Mastouri — Goal (Tunisia) · 1-2 |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jan Paul van Hecke — Goal (Netherlands) · 1-3 |
| 67' | 🔄 | Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud — Substitution (Tunisia) |
| 68' | 🔄 | Elias Achouri — Substitution (Tunisia) |
| 68' | 🔄 | Mortadha Ben Ouanes — Substitution (Tunisia) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Justin Kluivert — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Teun Koopmeiners — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Crysencio Summerville — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Firas Chaouat — Substitution (Tunisia) |
| 77' | 🔄 | Memphis Depay — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 84' | 🔄 | Noa Lang — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Sebastian Tounekti — Substitution (Tunisia) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Tunisia·■ draw·■ Netherlands—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
0–2 (16%)
actual 1–3 was 8th likeliest (6%)
Expected goals
0.53 – 2.28
actual 1 – 3
Over 2.5 goals✓
Over — 53%
4 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 63%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.1 expected
actual 0
Corners
≈10.9 expected
actual 10
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
V. van Dijk 59% C. Gakpo 42% X. Simons 29% H. Skhiri 23%Scored: Ellyes Skhiri (og) 3' · Brian Brobbey 7' · Hazem Mastouri 54' · Jan Paul van Hecke 62'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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