SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Thu, 25 Jun 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Ecuador 2–1 Germany — match statistics
Ecuador
Full time · MetLife Stadium, New York / NJ
Match statistics
Ecuador Germany
Timeline
| 2' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané — Goal (Germany) · 0-1 |
| 9' | ⚽ | Nilson Angulo — Goal (Ecuador) · 1-1 |
| 43' | 🟨 | Piero Hincapié — Yellowcard (Ecuador) |
| 44' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Pavlovic — Yellowcard (Germany) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Angelo Stiller — Substitution (Germany) |
| 50' | 🟨 | Alan Franco — Yellowcard (Ecuador) |
| 60' | 🔄 | Malick Thiaw — Substitution (Germany) |
| 60' | 🔄 | Deniz Undav — Substitution (Germany) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Maximilian Beier — Substitution (Germany) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Angelo Preciado — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Kevin Rodríguez — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Pervis Estupiñán — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Pascal Groß — Substitution (Germany) |
| 77' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Plata — Goal (Ecuador) · 2-1 |
| 85' | 🔄 | Jordy Caicedo — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Félix Torres — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Plata — Yellowcard (Ecuador) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Ecuador·■ draw·■ Germany—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
0–1 (14%)
actual 2–1 was 7th likeliest (6%)
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.33
actual 2 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 61%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.8 expected
actual 4
Corners
≈8.7 expected
actual 5
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
J. Musiala 40% M. Caicedo 30% F. Wirtz 27% K. Páez 20%Scored: Leroy Sané 2' · Nilson Angulo 9' · Gonzalo Plata 77'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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