SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sat, 20 Jun 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Germany 2–1 Ivory Coast — match statistics
Germany
Full time · BMO Field, Toronto
Match statistics
Germany Ivory Coast
Timeline
| 30' | ⚽ | Franck Kessié — Goal (Ivory Coast) · 0-1 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Antonio Rüdiger — Substitution (Germany) |
| 60' | 🔄 | Nadiem Amiri — Substitution (Germany) |
| 60' | 🔄 | Jamie Leweling — Substitution (Germany) |
| 60' | 🔄 | Deniz Undav — Substitution (Germany) |
| 68' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav — Goal (Germany) · 1-1 |
| 75' | 🔄 | Simon Adingra — Substitution (Ivory Coast) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Seko Fofana — Substitution (Ivory Coast) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Evann Guessand — Substitution (Ivory Coast) |
| 82' | 🔄 | Guela Doué — Substitution (Ivory Coast) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Leon Goretzka — Substitution (Germany) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Nicolas Pépé — Substitution (Ivory Coast) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav — Goal (Germany) · 2-1 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Germany·■ draw·■ Ivory Coast—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (14%)
actual 2–1 was 5th likeliest (9%)
Expected goals
1.47 – 0.82
actual 2 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 60%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 57%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.6 expected
actual 0
Corners
≈8.9 expected
actual 11
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
J. Musiala 44% S. Haller 33% F. Wirtz 30% S. Adingra 22%Scored: Franck Kessié 30' · Deniz Undav 68' · Deniz Undav 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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