SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Fri, 19 Jun 2026 · 19:00 UTC
United States 2–0 Australia — match statistics
United States
Full time · Lumen Field, Seattle
Match statistics
United States Australia
Timeline
| 11' | ⚽ | Cameron Burgess — Own Goal (United States) · 1-0 |
| 16' | 🟨 | Jordan Bos — Yellowcard (Australia) |
| 32' | 🟨 | Alessandro Circati — Yellowcard (Australia) |
| 43' | ⚽ | Alex Freeman — Goal (United States) · 2-0 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Jason Geria — Substitution (Australia) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Nestory Irankunda — Substitution (Australia) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Connor Metcalfe — Substitution (Australia) |
| 56' | 🟨 | Antonee Robinson — Yellowcard (United States) |
| 61' | 🔄 | Cristian Volpato — Substitution (Australia) |
| 74' | 🔄 | Sebastian Berhalter — Substitution (United States) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Jackson Irvine — Substitution (Australia) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Joe Scally — Substitution (United States) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Auston Trusty — Substitution (United States) |
| 88' | 🟨 | Harry Souttar — Yellowcard (Australia) |
| 89' | 🟨 | Folarin Balogun — Yellowcard (United States) |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jacob Italiano — Yellowcard (Australia) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Giovanni Reyna — Substitution (United States) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Haji Wright — Substitution (United States) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chris Richards — Yellowcard (United States) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ United States·■ draw·■ Australia—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (13%)
actual 2–0 was 8th likeliest (6%)
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.26
actual 2 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 55%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✗
Yes — 51%
outcome: no
Cards
≈5.0 expected
actual 7
Corners
≈9.7 expected
actual 11
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
J. Irvine 45% C. Pulisic 38% M. Boyle 31% W. McKennie 26%Scored: Cameron Burgess (og) 11' · Alex Freeman 43'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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