SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sat, 13 Jun 2026 · 01:00 UTC
United States 4–1 Paraguay — match statistics
United States
Full time · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Match statistics
United States Paraguay
Timeline
| 7' | ⚽ | Damián Bobadilla — Own Goal (United States) · 1-0 |
| 10' | 🟨 | Juan José Cáceres — Yellowcard (Paraguay) |
| 31' | ⚽ | Folarin Balogun — Goal (United States) · 2-0 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Folarin Balogun — Goal (United States) · 3-0 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Sebastian Berhalter — Substitution (United States) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Mauricio — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 50' | • | Tim Ream — VAR_CARD (United States) |
| 53' | 🟨 | Miguel Almirón — Yellowcard (Paraguay) |
| 59' | 🟨 | Tyler Adams — Yellowcard (United States) |
| 62' | 🔄 | Álex Arce — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Ricardo Pepi — Substitution (United States) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Timothy Weah — Substitution (United States) |
| 73' | ⚽ | Mauricio — Goal (Paraguay) · 3-1 |
| 79' | 🔄 | Ramón Sosa — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Gustavo Velázquez — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 79' | 🟨 | Diego Gómez — Yellowcard (Paraguay) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Kaku — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 82' | 🔄 | Giovanni Reyna — Substitution (United States) |
| 88' | 🟨 | Álex Arce — Yellowcard (Paraguay) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Giovanni Reyna — Goal (United States) · 4-1 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Júnior Alonso — Yellowcard (Paraguay) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ United States·■ draw·■ Paraguay—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (13%)
actual 4–1 was 17th likeliest (1%)
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.26
actual 4 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 55%
5 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✓
Yes — 51%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈5.0 expected
actual 6
Corners
≈9.7 expected
actual 4
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
M. Almirón 45% C. Pulisic 38% A. Sanabria 31% W. McKennie 26%Scored: Damián Bobadilla (og) 7' · Folarin Balogun 31' · Folarin Balogun 45' · Mauricio 73' · Giovanni Reyna 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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