SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Sat, 13 Jun 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Brazil 1–1 Morocco — match statistics
Brazil
Full time · MetLife Stadium, New York / NJ
Match statistics
Brazil Morocco
Timeline
| 21' | ⚽ | Ismael Saibari — Goal (Morocco) · 0-1 |
| 32' | ⚽ | Vinicius Junior — Goal (Brazil) · 1-1 |
| 37' | 🟨 | André Pawlak — Yellowcard (Brazil) |
| 43' | 🟨 | Roger Ibañez — Yellowcard (Brazil) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Danilo — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Fabinho — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 61' | 🔄 | Matheus Cunha — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 62' | 🔄 | Luiz Henrique — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 65' | 🔄 | Samir El Mourabet — Substitution (Morocco) |
| 65' | 🔄 | Chemsdine Talbi — Substitution (Morocco) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab — Substitution (Morocco) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Anass Salah-Eddine — Substitution (Morocco) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Danilo — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 89' | 🔄 | Soufiane Rahimi — Substitution (Morocco) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Brazil·■ draw·■ Morocco—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (14%)
actual 1–1 was 2nd likeliest (13%)
Expected goals
1.32 – 0.92
actual 1 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 61%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.8 expected
actual 2
Corners
≈8.7 expected
actual 8
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
Vinícius Jr. 40% A. Hakimi 30% Raphinha 27% Brahim Díaz 20%Scored: Ismael Saibari 21' · Vinicius Junior 32'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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